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With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Equities finished the week lower with fixed income markets unchanged, and oil closed below $40. VIX returned to mid-20s after spiking close to 40 the week earlier, as risk assets stabilised. Central Banks didn’t deliver any changes as expected. 

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
In the UK, speeches by BoE members emphasised the extended period required for the economy to heal, and that more QE, and negative rates were still options available to them. 

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
With many of the G10 central bankers speaking last week, we focus on the main topic – average inflation targeting (AIT). The announcement of a move to AIT by Chair Powell of the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium (virtual, of course), was the result of an 18-month study initially scheduled for release in Q1 2020. 

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Last week little changed for the rates markets. The previous weeks supply of US 3, 10 and 30y treasuries was bedded down with their yields and curve ending lower, and new all-time highs for the tech indices, pushed the boundary of “what is an acceptable P/E ratio?”. 

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Last week we observed a rare comeback of the traditional negative correlation between fixed income and equity markets. Driven by increased government bond issuance and stronger inflation prints across the globe, interest rates went higher (bond prices lower) for most of the week, while equities performed strongly. 

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Markets continued to move higher in June although volatility returned as COVID-19 infection rates picked up sharply in some US states. Whilst new cases continue to decline in most of Europe, America is much more bifurcated: outbreaks are falling rapidly in the states that were worst affected in March and April, while states such as Texas, California, Florida and Arizona are seeing a rapid increase in new cases. 

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Markets continued to recover in May as the impact of global shutdown became apparent in the economic data released over the month. In the US, the jobless rate tripled to 14.7% the highest level since the 1930s whilst retail sales slumped, falling 16% over the month. In the UK, the Bank of England forecast the weakest economic growth in more than three hundred years with the economy expected to shrink by 14% despite an expected rebound in the second half of the year. 

CIO Market Update with Will Bartleet
CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned to office after recovering from COVID-19 and warned the nation that ending the lockdown now would risk a “second spike”. 

CIO Market Update with Will Bartleet
CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

In the US, the House of Representatives passed the $484 billion aid package. The US Food and Drug Administration warned patients about the risks of taking malaria medications, something that President Trump has suggested as a treatment for COVID-19; there has been no comment yet on his suggestions for tests into using a disinfectant “by injection inside”. 

CIO Market Update with Will Bartleet
CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

A further 4.4 million Americans filed for employment benefits, taking the five-week number to 26.5 million. US biopharmaceutical company Gilead released results of Remdesivir, its potential antiviral drug for the treatment of COIVD-19 which showed that drug performed poorly in its first clinical trial. In a change of tone from the US President, Donald Trump said that he disagreed with the Georgia governor’s decision to begin to loosen curbs next week.