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CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Equity markets rounded off an extraordinary year with gains in most markets. The global roll out of the vaccine for COVID-19 began in the UK, which was the first country to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency also approved the AstraZeneca/Oxford University vaccine which has the advantage of being able to be stored in a conventional refrigerator, easing the distribution challenges of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Equity markets rallied sharply in November as positive news of a COVID-19 vaccine lifted sentiment. The market was driven firstly by the US election, which despite not being resolved over the night of the 3rd of November due to mail-in ballot counting, led to Joe Biden being declared president elect. The second key driver for markets over the month was the announcement of the results of phase 3 trials for the coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca.  

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Equity markets fell in October, as investors fretted about the economic impact of a pickup in COVID-19 cases whilst the inability of the US political system to agree a fiscal stimulus package weighed heavily on sentiment. The run up to the US elections on 3rd November saw both candidates exchange insults in the final weeks of campaigning; a narrowing in the polls and the fears of a contested election were a further source of volatility. In the UK, final talks on Brexit reached an impasse over fishing rights, however it is hoped that some form of deal will be finalised in the coming weeks. The UK’s latest GDP figures bounced 2.1% over the month, indicating that economies are recovering from the coronavirus induced recession, albeit at a slower pace than was the case during the summer. 

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Market volatility picked up during September, as concerns over the rise in COVID cases amongst European nations led many countries to re-introduce lockdown measures put in place to slow the spread of the virus. Whilst the rise in cases across Europe has been alarming, there was comfort that in most countries this did not coincide with equal increases in hospitalisations. The global economic recovery continued, albeit at a slower pace, with US unemployment falling from 10.2% to 8.4%. Extensions to support packages were also announced, with the aim of mitigating some of the economic impacts of these further lockdown measures; in the UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a new Job Support Scheme starting next month. In the US, President Trump and Joe Biden locked horns in a fractious televised debate ahead of the election in November.  

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

 

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management
 

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

 

CIO Monthly View with Will Bartleet, CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

Markets continued to recover in May as the impact of global shutdown became apparent in the economic data released over the month. In the US, the jobless rate tripled to 14.7% the highest level since the 1930s whilst retail sales slumped, falling 16% over the month. In the UK, the Bank of England forecast the weakest economic growth in more than three hundred years with the economy expected to shrink by 14% despite an expected rebound in the second half of the year. 

CIO Market Update with Will Bartleet
CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned to office after recovering from COVID-19 and warned the nation that ending the lockdown now would risk a “second spike”. 

CIO Market Update with Will Bartleet
CIO and multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management

In the US, the House of Representatives passed the $484 billion aid package. The US Food and Drug Administration warned patients about the risks of taking malaria medications, something that President Trump has suggested as a treatment for COVID-19; there has been no comment yet on his suggestions for tests into using a disinfectant “by injection inside”.