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Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Take away the punchbowl/Kill the Zombies!
At a recent meeting with a respected economic research firm, they alluded to the fact that the quick back track by the Fed earlier this year may have avoided yet another recession and lengthened the economic cycle by a few more years – To which I questioned – “Are Central Banks meant to avoid recessions or depressions?”  

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

With developed markets exhibiting the lowest unemployment levels in generations, why are their workforces not happier?
Over the last two decades the force of globalisation has pushed much of the worlds manufacturing and heavy industry to lower cost base economies into emerging markets (EM). This flow has resulted in many millions of EM workers being dragged out of poverty. That is a global success story that we should long remember and celebrate! Additionally, the populations of the developed market (DM) economies have directly benefited with the resulting access to cheaper goods and products – yet they are not happy! Even with many unemployment levels in the DM world hovering around multi year lows, this would seem to be at odds to the reality of discontent. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Is this the direction for western economic policy of the near future?
New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has recently announced a new budget policy called the “Wellbeing Budget”. It sets five priorities focusing on living standards involving human, social and natural capital. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

One of the biggest side effects of $14 trn of QE/Balance sheet expansion by the Fed/BoE/ECB and BoJ since the GFC, has been asset price inflation. This has created immense wealth for the lucky people who were long assets in various forms, such as housing or equities. Invariably this has increased the wealth divide to extreme levels and a generation of asset winners who believe it was their investing genius that acquired this wealth, when largely it was just a by-product of public policy. Not only those lucky individuals, but a large proportion of the investment industry may have fallen for the same self-deception. The fact is the lowering of central bank rates on inflation targeting and QE programs, has allowed the UST 10Y (and many other key government bonds) to rally since 1981. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager 

In the dark days of WW2, Churchill was presented with the proposal of cutting funding for the arts. His reply was, “Then what are we fighting for?” That was about the Arts, but what about education? For some decades now, we have been effectively taxing education. Is Education meant to be capitalist? Or is it meant to be about what we are as a society - striving for a constantly better future? Leaving this debate hanging, let’s look at the economic effect and ask.   

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager 

The IMF loves Macro - now!
Why now?
Well to answer the question, we first need to look where we have been. 

Macro has generally suffered since the initial rapid response by Central Banks post the demise of Lehman’s a decade ago. This is primarily because interest rate policy has been stagnant ever since, driving volatility of market rates to record lows. There were a few blips such as the Bernanke taper tantrum, Italy and Greece Euro crisis. But these were sell volatility events. This benign status quo has changed.