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With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team

Global Macro Overview
Geopolitics has been driving the financial markets for another week. However, unlike the previous 12 months, news has mostly been positive. The level of pessimism with regards to BrExit and US-China trade war became apparent when FX and Rates markets reacted aggressively to positive news on both. GBP had its best two-days in over a decade and US 10y bond yields sold off 25bps in three days. Interest rates are pricing around one cut from the Fed in 2019 and less than one cut from the BoE by the end of 2020. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog – After the Endgame
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Some major central banks have started hinting they are approaching the monetary endgame, what next?

The recent remarks from Draghi and Kuroda are quite telling – both are recognizing the limitations of what further cuts to Monetary Policy & QE can effectively achieve in their 3rd or 4th iterations.  

G10 Macro Rates Monthly View
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Charge of the Heavy Brigade, the Central Bank's are coming (again!)
After the August market flush, September started with a reversal in the direction of yields, and profit taking prior to the mid-month Federal Reserve meeting. A weaker jobs number in the non-farm payroll (NFP) report was offset by the strong wage growth, personal spending and robust housing starts.  

Pacific G10 Macro Rates Webcast
Listen to the Pacific G10 Macro Rates team for a 45 minutes webcast, as they explain their obsession with liquidity, share the rationale behind three recent RV rates trades and how volatility will likely present further opportunities for their strategy.  

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

When is daily liquidity not daily liquidity?
Easy, when the fund is gated, or more technically when there is a mismatch between the liquidity of the wrapper (daily UCITS etc) and the less liquid underlying investments.  

G10 Macro Rates – Lunchtime Event
The Clubhouse, St. James's Square, London, 26 June 2019

Pacific Asset Management was delighted yesterday to host a G10 Macro Rates Roundtable event in St James’s and many thanks to those who joined us who helped make it a success. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Take away the punchbowl/Kill the Zombies!
At a recent meeting with a respected economic research firm, they alluded to the fact that the quick back track by the Fed earlier this year may have avoided yet another recession and lengthened the economic cycle by a few more years – To which I questioned – “Are Central Banks meant to avoid recessions or depressions?”  

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

With developed markets exhibiting the lowest unemployment levels in generations, why are their workforces not happier?
Over the last two decades the force of globalisation has pushed much of the worlds manufacturing and heavy industry to lower cost base economies into emerging markets (EM). This flow has resulted in many millions of EM workers being dragged out of poverty. That is a global success story that we should long remember and celebrate! Additionally, the populations of the developed market (DM) economies have directly benefited with the resulting access to cheaper goods and products – yet they are not happy! Even with many unemployment levels in the DM world hovering around multi year lows, this would seem to be at odds to the reality of discontent. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Is this the direction for western economic policy of the near future?
New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has recently announced a new budget policy called the “Wellbeing Budget”. It sets five priorities focusing on living standards involving human, social and natural capital. 

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

One of the biggest side effects of $14 trn of QE/Balance sheet expansion by the Fed/BoE/ECB and BoJ since the GFC, has been asset price inflation. This has created immense wealth for the lucky people who were long assets in various forms, such as housing or equities. Invariably this has increased the wealth divide to extreme levels and a generation of asset winners who believe it was their investing genius that acquired this wealth, when largely it was just a by-product of public policy. Not only those lucky individuals, but a large proportion of the investment industry may have fallen for the same self-deception. The fact is the lowering of central bank rates on inflation targeting and QE programs, has allowed the UST 10Y (and many other key government bonds) to rally since 1981.