31 January 2019
Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager
Is this the direction for western economic policy of the near future?
New
Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has recently announced a new budget policy called the “Wellbeing Budget”. It sets five priorities focusing
on living standards involving human, social and natural capital.
15 November 2018
Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager
One of the biggest
side effects of $14 trn of QE/Balance sheet expansion by the Fed/BoE/ECB and BoJ since the GFC, has been asset price inflation. This has created immense
wealth for the lucky people who were long assets in various forms, such as housing or equities. Invariably this has increased the wealth divide to
extreme levels and a generation of asset winners who believe it was their investing genius that acquired this wealth, when largely it was just a by-product
of public policy. Not only those lucky individuals, but a large proportion of the investment industry may have fallen for the same self-deception.
The fact is the lowering of central bank rates on inflation targeting and QE programs, has allowed the UST 10Y (and many other key government bonds)
to rally since 1981.
30 October 2018
Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager
In the dark days of WW2, Churchill
was presented with the proposal of cutting funding for the arts. His reply was, “Then what are we fighting for?” That was about the Arts, but what
about education? For some decades now, we have been effectively taxing education. Is Education meant to be capitalist? Or is it meant to be about what
we are as a society - striving for a constantly better future? Leaving this debate hanging, let’s look at the economic effect and ask.
15 October 2018
Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager
The IMF loves Macro - now!
Why
now?
Well to answer the question, we first need to look where we have been.
Macro has generally suffered since the initial rapid response by Central Banks post the demise of Lehman’s a decade ago. This is primarily because
interest rate policy has been stagnant ever since, driving volatility of market rates to record lows. There were a few blips such as the Bernanke taper
tantrum, Italy and Greece Euro crisis. But these were sell volatility events. This benign status quo has changed.
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