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The content of this website has been prepared by Pacific Capital Partners Limited [PCP] incorporated in England and Wales, with its registered office at 74 Wigmore Street, London, W1U 2SQ, United Kingdom, registered number 02849777. PCP is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, FRN 171200. Pacific Asset Management is a trading name of PCP.
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The following terms and conditions (“Terms”) apply to your access to and use of this website (the “Website”). Each time you access or use the Website, you agree to comply with, and be bound by, the Terms and acknowledge that we may rely upon your agreement. Please read the following Terms carefully and if you do not accept any, please do not access or use the Website.
1. Information on the Website
Except where stated otherwise, the information and content on the Website (the “Information”) is provided by PCP (referred to as “we” and “us”) as at the date indicated on the relevant material and is provided for information purposes only.
You should not rely on the Information and should obtain relevant and specific professional advice in making any investment decision.
None of the material contained on the Website is intended to constitute an offer to sell, or an invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy any product or service provided by PCP and must not be relied upon in connection with any investment decision. The Website does not provide any specific investment advice and does not take into consideration the investment needs of any particular investor or investors.
2. Permitted Users of the Website
The laws and regulations of the country from which you access the Website may include restrictions on the distribution of the Information. The Website is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that jurisdiction’s applicable securities laws, person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) such distribution, publication, availability or use of the Website or any part of its contents would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or would subject PCP to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If you are such a person or entity, you are not authorised to enter the Website. It is your responsibility to ensure that your use of the Website complies with any restrictions or any applicable local laws regarding use of the Information on the Website. Persons or entities in respect of whom such restrictions apply must not access the relevant pages on the Website.
Certain materials on the Website have been created specifically for certain jurisdictions and as such it is your responsibility to ensure you navigate to the correct prepared material. PCP will not be responsible to you for your access to any material incorrect for the jurisdiction that you require.
3. Investment Performance
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment may go down as well up so that an investor’s investment, when redeemed, may be more or less than the original investment amount.
4. Accuracy of Information
The information contained on the Website is provided as is, is subject to change without notice and no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness or fitness for a particular purpose. PCP has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change without notice. PCP is under no obligation to update information and you should verify any Information or other material obtained from the Website before you use it.
If you use the Information, you do so at your own risk.
In addition, PCP does not represent or warrant that the Website or the servers that make the Website available will be uninterrupted, error free, or free from infection, viruses, worms or any other harmful code which may have contaminating or destructive properties. You are fully responsible for ensuring protective steps to be taken such as virus checking.
5. Internet and email communications
Messages sent over the internet (including e-mail) cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure as they are subject to possible interception, monitoring, delay, loss or alteration. PCP is not responsible for any such messages nor liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise in connection with any messages sent by you to us or any other party or any messages sent or appearing to be sent by PCP or any third party to you over the Internet (including e-mail). You should not include any sensitive or confidential information in such messages.
6. Monitoring of communication
To help us improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record communications (whether over the Internet, telephone or otherwise) between you and us. All recordings are our sole property.
7. Exclusion of Liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, PCP accepts no liability to you or any third party for any losses or damages, including, without limitation, direct or indirect damages, consequential or special damages, loss of use, data or profits, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you or third party, whether in contract or due to negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the access to, use of, reliance on, or performance of this website or any information contained on this website, whether due to inaccuracy, error, omission or any other cause and whether on the part of us, our servants, agents or any other person.
Nothing in the Terms excludes, restricts or modifies any condition, warranty or liability which may at any time be implied by statute or any other applicable law where to do so is illegal or would render any provision of an agreement void.
8. Third Party Websites
Links to third party websites are provided solely for your convenience. We have not reviewed any third party websites and are not responsible for their content. PCP does not endorse or make representations about them, or any material found there, or any results that may be obtained from using them. If you access any third party websites linked to this website, you do so entirely at your own risk.
9. Indemnity
You agree to indemnify PCP from and against any claim brought by third parties against PCP as a consequence of your breach of the Terms. Furthermore, if your use of the Website results in the need for servicing, repair or correction of equipment, software or data, you are responsible for all costs.
10. Intellectual Property Rights
The copyright, trade mark or any other intellectual property rights in the Website and the Information are owned by or licensed to PCP. You may download or print out a hard copy for your personal use provided you do not remove any copyright or other proprietary notices. You may not reproduce (in whole or in part), transmit (by electronic means or otherwise), modify, link to or use for any public or commercial purpose this Website without the prior written permission of PCP.
11. Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy
We are committed to protecting your privacy. PCP may use “Cookies” to collect and access information concerning your visit to and use of the Website and is committed to preserving the privacy of all visitors. Please see our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy in relation to how your data may be collected, stored and processed by visiting this site.
12. Governing Law
The Terms are governed by the laws of England and Wales and the courts of England and Wales will have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under them.
Updated and effective as of June 2024
You acknowledge and agree that access to this Site is provided only in accordance with these Terms & Conditions. By accessing this website (the ‘Site’), you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions (the ‘Terms’). Before using this Site, you should read carefully the Terms, our Cookie Policy and also our Privacy & Security Statement. If you do not agree to these Terms & Conditions, please do not make use of this Site.
The content of this website has been prepared by Pacific Capital Partners Limited [PCP] incorporated in England and Wales, with its registered office at 74 Wigmore Street, London, W1U 2SQ, United Kingdom, registered number 02849777. PCP is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, FRN 171200. PCP is also registered as an investment advisor with the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). Pacific Asset Management is a trading name of PCP.
Under no circumstances should any part of this website be construed as an offering or solicitation of an offer. Any investment in the products of this site should only be made on the basis of an Offering Memorandum or Prospectus.
The following terms and conditions (“Terms”) apply to your access to and use of this website (the “Website”). Each time you access or use the Website, you agree to comply with, and be bound by, the Terms and acknowledge that we may rely upon your agreement. Please read the following Terms carefully and if you do not accept any, please do not access or use the Website.
1. Information on the Website
Except where stated otherwise, the information and content on the Website (the “Information”) is provided by PCP (referred to as “we” and “us”) as at the date indicated on the relevant material and is provided for information purposes only.
You should not rely on the Information and should obtain relevant and specific professional advice in making any investment decision.
None of the material contained on the Website is intended to constitute an offer to sell, or an invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy any product or service provided by PCP and must not be relied upon in connection with any investment decision. The Website does not provide any specific investment advice and does not take into consideration the investment needs of any particular investor or investors.
2. Permitted Users of the Website
The laws and regulations of the country from which you access the Website may include restrictions on the distribution of the Information. The Website is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that jurisdiction’s applicable securities laws, person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) such distribution, publication, availability or use of the Website or any part of its contents would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or would subject PCP to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If you are such a person or entity, you are not authorised to enter the Website. It is your responsibility to ensure that your use of the Website complies with any restrictions or any applicable local laws regarding use of the Information on the Website. Persons or entities in respect of whom such restrictions apply must not access the relevant pages on the Website.
Certain materials on the Website have been created specifically for certain jurisdictions and as such it is your responsibility to ensure you navigate to the correct prepared material. PCP will not be responsible to you for your access to any material incorrect for the jurisdiction that you require.
3. Investment Performance
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment may go down as well up so that an investor’s investment, when redeemed, may be more or less than the original investment amount.
4. Accuracy of Information
The information contained on the Website is provided as is, is subject to change without notice and no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness or fitness for a particular purpose. PCP has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change without notice. PCP is under no obligation to update information and you should verify any Information or other material obtained from the Website before you use it.
If you use the Information, you do so at your own risk.
In addition, PCP does not represent or warrant that the Website or the servers that make the Website available will be uninterrupted, error free, or free from infection, viruses, worms or any other harmful code which may have contaminating or destructive properties. You are fully responsible for ensuring protective steps to be taken such as virus checking.
5. Internet and email communications
Messages sent over the internet (including e-mail) cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure as they are subject to possible interception, monitoring, delay, loss or alteration. PCP is not responsible for any such messages nor liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise in connection with any messages sent by you to us or any other party or any messages sent or appearing to be sent by PCP or any third party to you over the Internet (including e-mail). You should not include any sensitive or confidential information in such messages.
6. Monitoring of communication
To help us improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record communications (whether over the Internet, telephone or otherwise) between you and us. All recordings are our sole property.
7. Exclusion of Liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, PCP accepts no liability to you or any third party for any losses or damages, including, without limitation, direct or indirect damages, consequential or special damages, loss of use, data or profits, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you or third party, whether in contract or due to negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the access to, use of, reliance on, or performance of this website or any information contained on this website, whether due to inaccuracy, error, omission or any other cause and whether on the part of us, our servants, agents or any other person.
Nothing in the Terms excludes, restricts or modifies any condition, warranty or liability which may at any time be implied by statute or any other applicable law where to do so is illegal or would render any provision of an agreement void.
8. Third Party Websites
Links to third party websites are provided solely for your convenience. We have not reviewed any third party websites and are not responsible for their content. PCP does not endorse or make representations about them, or any material found there, or any results that may be obtained from using them. If you access any third party websites linked to this website, you do so entirely at your own risk.
9. Indemnity
You agree to indemnify PCP from and against any claim brought by third parties against PCP as a consequence of your breach of the Terms. Furthermore, if your use of the Website results in the need for servicing, repair or correction of equipment, software or data, you are responsible for all costs.
10. Intellectual Property Rights
The copyright, trade mark or any other intellectual property rights in the Website and the Information are owned by or licensed to PCP. You may download or print out a hard copy for your personal use provided you do not remove any copyright or other proprietary notices. You may not reproduce (in whole or in part), transmit (by electronic means or otherwise), modify, link to or use for any public or commercial purpose this Website without the prior written permission of PCP.
11. Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy
We are committed to protecting your privacy. PCP may use “Cookies” to collect and access information concerning your visit to and use of the Website and is committed to preserving the privacy of all visitors. Please see our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy in relation to how your data may be collected, stored and processed by visiting this site.
12. Governing Law
The Terms are governed by the laws of England and Wales and the courts of England and Wales will have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under them.
Updated and effective as of June 2024
You acknowledge and agree that access to this Site is provided only in accordance with these Terms & Conditions. By accessing this website (the ‘Site’), you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions (the ‘Terms’). Before using this Site, you should read carefully the Terms, our Cookie Policy and also our Privacy & Security Statement. If you do not agree to these Terms & Conditions, please do not make use of this Site.
The content of this website has been prepared by Pacific Capital Partners Limited [PCP] incorporated in England and Wales, with its registered office at 74 Wigmore Street, London, W1U 2SQ, United Kingdom, registered number 02849777. PCP is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, FRN 171200. Pacific Asset Management is a trading name of PCP.
Information on this website is solely for eligible persons or companies located in Canada (“Eligible Canadians”) who are “accredited investors”, as defined in National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions, and “permitted clients”, as defined in National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations (NI 31-103). PCP is not registered as a dealer in any jurisdiction of Canada and trades securities with Eligible Canadians in reliance upon the international dealer exemption that is available pursuant to section 8.18(2) of NI 31-103.
The following terms and conditions (“Terms”) apply to your access to and use of this website (the “Website”). Each time you access or use the Website, you agree to comply with, and be bound by, the Terms and acknowledge that we may rely upon your agreement. Please read the following Terms carefully and if you do not accept any, please do not access or use the Website.
1. Information on the Website
Except where stated otherwise, the information and content on the Website (the “Information”) is provided by PCP (referred to as “we” and “us”) as at the date indicated on the relevant material and is provided for information purposes only.
You should not rely on the Information and should obtain relevant and specific professional advice in making any investment decision.
None of the material contained on the Website is intended to constitute an offer to sell, or an invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy any product or service provided by PCP and must not be relied upon in connection with any investment decision. The Website does not provide any specific investment advice and does not take into consideration the investment needs of any particular investor or investors.
2. Permitted Users of the Website
The laws and regulations of the country from which you access the Website may include restrictions on the distribution of the Information. The Website is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that jurisdiction’s applicable securities laws, person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) such distribution, publication, availability or use of the Website or any part of its contents would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or would subject PCP to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If you are such a person or entity, you are not authorised to enter the Website. It is your responsibility to ensure that your use of the Website complies with any restrictions or any applicable local laws regarding use of the Information on the Website. Persons or entities in respect of whom such restrictions apply must not access the relevant pages on the Website.
Certain materials on the Website have been created specifically for certain jurisdictions and as such it is your responsibility to ensure you navigate to the correct prepared material. PCP will not be responsible to you for your access to any material incorrect for the jurisdiction that you require.
3. Investment Performance
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment may go down as well up so that an investor’s investment, when redeemed, may be more or less than the original investment amount.
4. Accuracy of Information
The information contained on the Website is provided as is, is subject to change without notice and no guarantee is made as to its accuracy, completeness or fitness for a particular purpose. PCP has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change without notice. PCP is under no obligation to update information and you should verify any Information or other material obtained from the Website before you use it.
If you use the Information, you do so at your own risk.
In addition, PCP does not represent or warrant that the Website or the servers that make the Website available will be uninterrupted, error free, or free from infection, viruses, worms or any other harmful code which may have contaminating or destructive properties. You are fully responsible for ensuring protective steps to be taken such as virus checking.
5. Internet and email communications
Messages sent over the internet (including e-mail) cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure as they are subject to possible interception, monitoring, delay, loss or alteration. PCP is not responsible for any such messages nor liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise in connection with any messages sent by you to us or any other party or any messages sent or appearing to be sent by PCP or any third party to you over the Internet (including e-mail). You should not include any sensitive or confidential information in such messages.
6. Monitoring of communication
To help us improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record communications (whether over the Internet, telephone or otherwise) between you and us. All recordings are our sole property.
7. Exclusion of Liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, PCP accepts no liability to you or any third party for any losses or damages, including, without limitation, direct or indirect damages, consequential or special damages, loss of use, data or profits, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you or third party, whether in contract or due to negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the access to, use of, reliance on, or performance of this website or any information contained on this website, whether due to inaccuracy, error, omission or any other cause and whether on the part of us, our servants, agents or any other person.
Nothing in the Terms excludes, restricts or modifies any condition, warranty or liability which may at any time be implied by statute or any other applicable law where to do so is illegal or would render any provision of an agreement void.
8. Third Party Websites
Links to third party websites are provided solely for your convenience. We have not reviewed any third party websites and are not responsible for their content. PCP does not endorse or make representations about them, or any material found there, or any results that may be obtained from using them. If you access any third party websites linked to this website, you do so entirely at your own risk.
9. Indemnity
You agree to indemnify PCP from and against any claim brought by third parties against PCP as a consequence of your breach of the Terms. Furthermore, if your use of the Website results in the need for servicing, repair or correction of equipment, software or data, you are responsible for all costs.
10. Intellectual Property Rights
The copyright, trade mark or any other intellectual property rights in the Website and the Information are owned by or licensed to PCP. You may download or print out a hard copy for your personal use provided you do not remove any copyright or other proprietary notices. You may not reproduce (in whole or in part), transmit (by electronic means or otherwise), modify, link to or use for any public or commercial purpose this Website without the prior written permission of PCP.
11. Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy
We are committed to protecting your privacy. PCP may use “Cookies” to collect and access information concerning your visit to and use of the Website and is committed to preserving the privacy of all visitors. Please see our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy in relation to how your data may be collected, stored and processed by visiting this site.
12. Governing Law
The Terms are governed by the laws of England and Wales and the courts of England and Wales will have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under them.
Updated and effective as of June 2024
Multi-Asset – Investment Outlook – 2026: June Insights
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OUTLOOK
Markets and headlines often diverge, but today many market observers are perplexed by the ongoing gloomy headlines and the robustness of the stock market. Two opposing forces are at work: the disruption of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which is feeding through to global inflation and beginning to weigh on growth, versus the vast spending on AI, which is providing a powerful tailwind to economic growth and corporate earnings. The former is reflected in the bond market; the latter in the eye-catching performance of equity markets.
The ongoing energy disruption in the Middle East is an unwelcome reminder of the impact of higher energy prices in 2022 in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. Those with longer memories or an interest in economic and market history look back at the 1970s to see what damage an energy crisis can wreak. On that count, it’s worth remembering that the global economy has evolved and grown significantly in the last fifty years, whilst dependence on oil as an energy source has fallen as clean energy has become a more significant portion of global energy supply, and major economies have become more service sector driven. However, the impact of rising energy prices is felt around the world with consumers feeling the effects of higher petrol and household electricity prices. This feeds into inflation and is forcing central banks to consider rate hikes rather than cuts, which was the expectation prior to the conflict. So, whilst stock markets have been resilient, bond markets around the world have been impacted by this about-turn by central bankers.
The equity market, on the other hand, seems oblivious to what the International Energy Agency described as “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. Is it in denial? The reason for this is that the impact on growth has been modest and so far, more than offset by the boost in growth from AI spending. The scale and speed of capex spending by the hyperscalers – Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft plus Oracle – is hard to conceptualise. Collectively they are forecast to spend an eye-watering $700 billion this year and over $1 trillion in 2027. This spending already far outweighs the investment in telecom fibre in the 1990s to support the explosive growth of the Internet. Whilst some of the largest telecom companies funded their expansion through debt and paid a heavy price once the internet bubble popped, the balance sheets of the Magnificent Seven started off pristine. How their balance sheets evolve over the next few years will be critical to the sustainability of this extraordinary capex cycle.
Hyperscaler CAPEX estimate for next 12 months
Our approach has been to engage with this theme, but to do so in a diversified manner, without doubling up on those US megacap technology names that dominate the index. Our “AI at a discount” theme includes investment trusts with exposure to public and private AI companies trading at large discounts to NAV, robotics, biotech and health tech, and clean energy stocks. These allocations are either direct or indirect beneficiaries of this extraordinary technology and in aggregate trade at a valuation discount to the market. Clean energy scores twice as a beneficiary of both the supply shock from the Middle East and the demand shock from AI infrastructure spending on data centres.
Perhaps the most surprising beneficiary of AI spending has been our exposure to semiconductor stocks through our Value ETFs both in the US and Emerging Markets. Emerging market indices have historically been considered cyclical and commodity linked, but quietly over the past 15 years the weight of technology stocks in these indices has crept up, from around 10% to nearly 40% today – particularly businesses based in Korea and Taiwan. Many investors have failed to notice that the technology weighting in Emerging Markets now exceeds that in the US, although moving Google and Amazon into Communications and Consumer Discretionary respectively, has certainly helped. We were drawn to these sector neutral Value ETFs due to their extreme valuation discount on multiple metrics, and today many of their technology holdings are key beneficiaries of the bottlenecks in both memory and semiconductor production, leading to soaring earnings. Stocks that are priced for lacklustre growth can deliver truly spectacular returns with an earnings tailwind. But we also know from experience that these supercycles don’t go on forever.
Value stocks have one more trick up their sleeve: they have historically outperformed as inflation picks up. Looking back over the last 100 years, value stocks have outperformed in most decades, with the underperformance in the 2010s being the exception, not the rule. In decades where inflation has run hot, value stocks have tended to outperform, with the 1970s being the most extreme example when inflation ran at over 7% per year and value stocks outperformed by a similar margin. We should all hope that we don’t have a repeat of that decade, which was a dismal period for investors, but in a world of higher and more volatile inflation, value stocks are an important part of the toolkit.
The relationship between inflation and value investing for each decade from the 1920’s to the 2010’s
CONCLUSION
Despite the considerable gloominess and the potential economic impact of the energy disruption caused by the Middle East, there are reasons to be hopeful. The capex spending of the hyperscalers is unprecedented and is leading to a pickup in both growth and earnings for downstream businesses. However, the impact of the disruption to energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz will start to bite from a growth perspective if it remains unresolved over the summer and so a balanced, diversified approach remains key.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION: Issued and approved by Pacific Capital Partners Limited, a limited company registered in England and Wales, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The information contained herein is not approved for use by the public and is only intended for recipients who would be generally classified as investment professionals. Information or opinions contained in this article do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation, or offer to buy, any securities or financial instruments or investment advice or any advice or recommendation in respect of such securities or other financial instruments. Where past performance is shown it refers to the past and should not be seen as an indication of future performance.
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Multi-Asset: Market Update June 2026
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Emerging Markets Income: May Monthly Commentary
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