Global equities continued their positive momentum through the summer, finishing broadly higher across major regions despite continued headline risks. Risk assets were also supported by a “bad news is good news” story, as U.S. unemployment rose to 4.2%, prompting Fed Chair Powell to note at the Jackson Hole summit that the shifting balance of economic risks may expedite a cut in interest rates.
U.S. equities were broadly flat in sterling terms (up 2% in USD), as renewed investor scepticism about the commercial benefits of AI weighed on technology stocks. A widely discussed Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study revealed that fewer than 5% of AI pilot programmes had moved from pilot stage to production, tempering enthusiasm in the sector. Even NVIDIA, despite reporting standout earnings with 56% year-on-year revenue growth, saw its share price fall after a data-centre revenue miss – highlighting the elevated expectations that markets are currently pricing in.
Against this backdrop, our position in the iShares USA Value ETF was additive to performance, returning +3.1% as investors looked beyond richly valued, growth centric companies.
Gold extended its rally in August which saw our allocation to gold mining companies via the iShares Gold Producers ETF return over 18% last month. Investors are re-appraising the value of these companies not just on the back of a higher gold price but also the operational efficiencies that have been made in the sector.
In fixed income, we saw real yields falling in the US on the back of the more dovish tone from the Fed, which favoured inflation linked and corporate bonds. This meant we saw positive returns from our position in US TIPs, as well as our allocation to investment grade bonds via the Xtrackers USD Corporate Bond ETF which was up 0.7%.
Within our Alternatives allocation the position in the iShares Physical Gold ETC benefited from the move up in Gold prices, with the allocation up 2.3%. Within Diversifying Assets, our 2s10s steepener (+1.1%) contributed positively as markets priced in more aggressive US rate cuts, steepening the yield curve.