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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 3rd August 2020

03 August 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Volatility continued declining last week with the VIX reaching lows not seen since the end of February, however it remains historically elevated. US and EM equities finished the week and month on a high, while other equity markets were flat to slightly down. Interest rates continued sliding lower last week, however the noticeable move came from the dollar which was -1% weaker against developed market currencies and -0.35% against the Asian currencies. 

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 27th July 2020

27 July 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
The summer markets settled in last week, helped by the 2-day holiday in Japan originally scheduled to coincide with the beginning of the Olympic Games in Tokyo. Equities finished the week flat to slightly lower, the yield on 10y Treasury Bonds was 0.05% lower on a week with little volatility in other G10 Government Bonds markets. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China triggered risk-off moves towards the end of the week, but the market reaction remained muted.  

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 20th July 2020

20 July 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
The week started with good Chinese GDP data (+3.2% vs +2.4% exp., -6.8% prev.) this was stronger than expected but it is still a long way from the 5% to 6% target. Inflation data was also released from several areas and was muted at best. With participants of the view that significant economic slack will persist for some time it is difficult to imagine the inflation data changing dramatically over the coming months.  

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 13th July 2020

13 July 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Chinese equities rallied strongly last week, posting a 7.6% gain. US yields were less impressive, the US 30y rallied over 16bp at one point and there was also a significant flattening of the yield curve. These moves in US yields were despite a very large net issuance of 94bln (estimated) and the previous Friday’s very positive jobs number.  

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 29th June 2020

29 June 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Fear and pessimism returned to the financial markets last week with risk assets underperforming against the safe havens. Despite the positive data coming out from the G10 economies sending the Citi Economic Surprise index to the highest levels since early 2018. Fears of a second wave in the US were increasing all week as new COVID-19 cases continued to soar in the Southern States. 

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 15th June 2020

15 June 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Last week financial markets traded in a clear risk-off fashion with risk assets (equities, credit, commodities) underperforming and safe havens performing strongly (government bonds, JPY and CHF). 

As fears about the second wave in the US and China escalated over the week, risk assets repriced sharply lower, with the S&P 500 experiencing the worst 1-day performance since March on Thursday. On the week, the S&P 500 was down 5%, WTI down almost 8% and 10y yields in the US 0.2% lower at 0.7%. 

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 8th June 2020

08 June 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 
Last week economic data joined fiscal and monetary authorities in driving financial markets, probably the first time since the start of the pandemic. The ECB surprised markets by extending the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by EUR 600bn and announcing reinvestments. This led to a significant rally in the periphery vs. core countries, adding to the bullishness from an additional fiscal stimulus (including temporary VAT cut) announced by Germany earlier in the week.  

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 1st June 2020

02 June 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 

Global Macro Overview
Risk assets again performed strongly last week. The S&P500 increased by over 3%, matched by the European and global equity markets, while WTI oil was 5% higher. There are a lot of reasons in the short-term for the optimism that financial markets have been pricing recently. Economies are gradually coming back to life across the globe and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in most developed nations are still in place.  

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G10 Macro Rates Blog – Hope is fully priced

28 May 2020

Latest G10 Macro Rates Blog
With Shayne Dunlap, Co-Portfolio Manager

Humans have an innate ability to hope – to believe things will be better in the future than they are currently. This has been an important factor in our species surviving and ultimately thriving as the dominant one on this planet. It also has the side effect of manifesting itself in the financial markets. 

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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 22nd May 2020

26 May 2020

With the Pacific G10 Macro Rates Team 

Global Macro Overview
Volatility continued to decline last week. The key themes remained unchanged: risk assets rebounded as economies started to re-open with the S&P 500 up 3.5% on the week, WTI up 12.5% to above $33, Credit spreads were tighter across the board and 10y Government Bond yields remained mostly unchanged.  

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